As the energy landscape shifts, Jay Hakes looks at what comes next

Predicting the future of energy has never been easy. For Jay Hakes, an energy historian who built a career on such prognostication, decades spent studying the industry have taught him that the answer to what the future holds can change remarkably fast.

Hakes, who will take part in the upcoming Tulane Future of Energy Forum, led the U.S. Energy Information Administration from 1993 to 2000 and oversaw the federal government’s short- and long-term energy forecasts. Today, he sees an industry being rapidly reshaped on several fronts at once via dramatic changes in federal policy, technological advancements and the enormous power demands accompanying the growth of artificial intelligence.

The challenge, Hakes said, is to understand how those forces interact rather than looking at oil, natural gas, solar, nuclear power or other energy sources in isolation.

“There’s a way of looking at energy as an interconnected system rather than just looking at one area,” Hakes said. “Most people (interested in energy) are working for an oil company, an electric utility or an environmental organization. I try to put everything into one picture.”

Knowing where energy will come from is becoming even more important as electricity demand begins rising again after years of relative stagnation.  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says data centers are emerging as a dominant driver of long-term electricity demand growth, forcing utilities, technology companies and policymakers to consider how to add large amounts of power quickly and affordably.

Louisiana is already confronting that question. Meta’s AI-focused data center in Richland Parish is expected to be served through an energy plan that includes new natural gas generation, grid-scale batteries, nuclear uprates and purchased power.

Hakes sees the decisions surrounding data centers as one of the defining energy questions of the moment.  

“In Louisiana, the push so far has been for data centers powered by natural gas. However, other states are turning to solar panels with batteries, which might provide lower costs and less local and atmospheric pollution,” Hakes said. “New nuclear options are emerging but may struggle to be cost-competitive. If affordable, nuclear would devour less acreage and perhaps be more acceptable to local communities.”

The cost-effectiveness of energy also remains a driver of potential industry shifts. As global events result in oil pricing flux, solar provides insurance against escalating fuel prices, even as wind projects in Louisiana’s offshore waters look less likely.  

“Given the long time to complete wind projects, it is unlikely wind will be a future option for companies that want to use the talents of offshore oil experts for renewable energy projects,” Hakes said. “The Gulf will likely continue to produce oil but should be prepared to deal with tighter environmental controls if the political environment changes.”

Among other advancing technologies, Hakes is keeping a particularly close eye on batteries.

At Tulane’s 2024 Future of Energy Forum, he identified battery technology as potentially the most dynamic part of the energy landscape in the years ahead. Two years later, the numbers are moving rapidly in that direction. U.S. utility-scale battery storage capacity grew at an average annual rate of 70% over the past three years, reaching nearly 52 gigawatts by the middle of 2026, according to the EIA.

Batteries matter in part because they can store electricity generated by solar and other intermittent sources for use when production falls or demand rises. Developers planned for solar and batteries to account for nearly four-fifths of new U.S. utility-scale generating capacity added in 2026.

“I’ve testified before Congress and to governments all around the world about expected changes in energy technology, so I think I have a pretty good record of being accurate,” Hakes said. “Still, things are different now than they were two years ago, and each annual Future of Energy Forum at Tulane offers fresh circumstances, so there’s always more to learn.”  

This article is part of a series highlighting Tulane University energy experts and energy industry professionals ahead of the 2026 Future of Energy Forum hosted by Tulane University. Jay Hakes will moderate a panel with Tyler Priest, one of the country’s leading experts on offshore oil drilling, as they discuss both the past and the evolution of offshore oil and gas development. For more information, visit energyforum.tulane.edu.